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MARCELO CARVALHO

Global economist—PhD, multilingual, media-savvy, and master of making macroeconomics magnetic on any stage

  • Global Authority: Former Global Head of Economics at BNP Paribas, commanding teams across the Americas, Europe, and Asia
  • Academic Firepower: PhD in Economics from the University of Illinois; turns academic depth into crystal-clear, real-world insights
  • Elite Credentials: Veteran of the IMF, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley — Marcelo’s career reads like the dream team of global finance
  • Master Communicator: Called a “global macro storyteller,” he captivates with clarity, charisma, and just the right touch of humor
  • Multilingual & Magnetic: Fluent in English, Spanish, and Portuguese. Trusted by clients and institutions from New York to São Paulo to Paris

Dr. Marcelo Carvalho is a global macroeconomist with a PhD in Economics and a distinguished track record at institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and BNP Paribas, where he led emerging markets macro research for Latin America. He was later promoted to Head of Emerging Markets Research and subsequently to Global Head of Economics, based in London.

Marcelo is a sought-after speaker at international conferences, offering analysis on how global dynamics affect corporate and policy decisions. His style blends economic narrative, geopolitical analysis and scenario planning tools tailored for business leaders and investors.

He brings a regional and global lens to help audiences anticipate trends in consumption, investment, inflation and political shifts—delivering insight that is structured, clear and actionable.

Marcelo tailors each presentation to the needs of his audience and is not limited to the topics listed below. Please ask us about any subject that interests you:

  • Global macroeconomic trends & geopolitics
  • Latin America outlook: risks and opportunities
  • Investment strategy in volatile environments
  • Scenario planning & leadership decisions
  • Economic storytelling: translating data into action

European Business Outlook: Navigation the New Reality

  • Strategic guidance for European corporates navigating shifting US policies and geopolitical realignment.
  • Tensions in the transatlantic relation under Trump, and a balancing act regarding China, but new opportunities too.
  • Europe struggles for strategic autonomy amid U.S. pressure and internal divisions.

Trump policies: geopolitical and macro implications for the global economy

  • Tariffs are back—and not just as a Trump policy.

The trade war signals a bigger shift: goodbye free trade orthodoxy, hello economic nationalism.

  • Trade wars are easy to start, messy to win.

Short-term political gains, long-term global headaches. Think slower growth, fractured supply chains, rising inflation risks—and more boardroom uncertainty everywhere.

  •  America is stepping back from global leadership.

Under Trump, the U.S. pivoted from “we lead: global cooperation” to “we deal: what’s in it for us?” That mindset is reshaping geopolitics just as much as economics.

Supply-Chain Fragmentation & Trade Policy Shocks

  • From Just-in-Time to Just-in-Case: The New Global Supply Chain Playbook
  • The rise of geopolitically driven trade distortions—tariff escalation, supply reshoring, and trade restrictions — is reshaping global trade dynamics.
  • Vulnerabilities exposed in energy sourcing, tech dependencies, and policy volatility are central to today’s macro-strategy debates
  • Reshoring, near-shoring, friendly-shoring: re-thinking global supply chains.

 Global Macroeconomic Outlook Amid Shifting Geopolitics

  • Shifting US policies under Trump create a new global trade and geopolitical landscape.
  • How can fiscal and monetary policies respond? How will central banks cope with the new environment?
  • Prospects for growth, inflation, interest rates, currencies and investment flows.

Emerging Markets: Challenges and Opportunities in a Brave New World

  • US policies under Trump are reshaping the international landscape.
  • Shifting global macro and geopolitical drivers create risks but also opportunities for Emerging Markets.
  • Building a new global architecture with BRICS? What role can BRICS economies play in the new global economy?

I have had the pleasure of interacting with Marcelo Carvalho as a speaker at IIF’s flagship international conferences, among various other roles. I can confidently say that Marcelo is one of the most compelling and engaging communicators in the field of global macroeconomics. 

Marcelo brings deep analytical knowledge and extensive geopolitical expertise, along with the ability to translate complex macroeconomic dynamics into clear and accessible insights for diverse audiences. Whether addressing policymakers, investors, or senior executives, Marcelo captivates the audience with clarity, confidence, and a much-appreciated dose of wit. 
Our members have highly rated his presentations, attributing this not only to his experience across financial institutions but also to his skill in connecting the dots across regions, markets, and policy frameworks. 

In a world flooded with noise, Marcelo’s voice stands out as innovative, grounded, and relevant. He’s an insightful speaker and a valuable asset to any agenda.

Martín Castellano - Head of Latam Research at Institute of International Finance

Besides mastering the economic subject like few others, he always shone through his expertise and charisma, being able to translate complex concepts into day to day matters that everyone could perfectly understand and stick to them (and always with a few welcomed laughs). In sum, Marcelo is a star guest speaker and one that I would definitely recommend for anyone looking for someone in his field of expertise.

Martín Nogueira - Head of Private Capital - Spain, Portugal and Latin America at BNP Paribas Securities Services

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